Wednesday, April 9, 2008

Train Wreck Ahead

You've heard it before: The light at the end of the tunnel, oncoming train, etc.

The train is hyperinflation. There is no avoiding it*, ignoring it won't make it go away, and it doesn't care if you stick your fingers in your ears and hum loudly. The only real questions are: When will it hit, how hard will it be, and what can you do about it?

It's worth your while to read up on hyperinflation. I won't go into details right now, but simply Googling or Wikipediaing Hyperinflation will get you all you need to know. Do that, then come back and tell me that we aren't in trouble. Please, because I would much rather we not have to face that train.

Meanwhile, I'd like to get this conversation going. Hyperinflation has happened many times before. It's not the end of the world. You can survive it, and even profit from it if you aren't too risk-averse. But it will be a wild ride, and the outcome, like war, will always have major unforeseen consequences.

We can help each other through this. It's been said (who said it?) That "Many minds make quick work of uncertainty". I intend for this blog to be a tool to reduce the uncertainty of hyperinflation. I've got my own ideas and analysis of what's going to happen, but I'm just a regular guy. We put our heads together and we can harness that mysterious collaborative Internet Superorganism thing that surrounds us and binds us together, and come up with some useful answers. I want this place to be educational, informative, and predictive. As a truthful aside, I'm not above it being profitable. Like so many of you, I really don't have the time to maintain a blog, but if it pays I can make time. Please click on the ads (when I find time to get them up), and keep this place going.

Now, here's our mission:

1. Education: Learn about hyperinflation, what it is, what are the warning signs, what is the historical record, and how does it apply to the here and now? What can we do about it?

2. Surveillance: We need a master warning and caution panel, a digital dashboard that gives us the critical indicators at a glance, and then leads to more in-depth information.

3. Analysis: What does all this data mean? It it real or BS? Where are we now and where are we going?

4. Prediction: When is this train going to hit? How bad will it get? What will be the aftermath? I'll start off with my rapidly shrinking $.02, you add your own. We need some collaborative forecasting here.

So that's it. We have a major problem coming at us, but it's happened before. We can learn from the past, we can analyze the present, and be better prepared for the future. Just remember: This is not the end of the world. There is a wild ride ahead, but we can do something about it. Keep the faith and hang on through the next few years, and the crazy will pass. The other end of the tunnel may be better than you think.

*Well, there are other scenarios that I'll bring up, but work with me here, OK?

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