1. Short Duration: This is the soonest that hyperinflation could realistically hit.
2. Middle Duration: The "average" time scale scenario
3. Long Duration: Hyperinflation that is years away, but still based on current conditions.
This is not any kind of statistical analysis, just a range of values for planning purposes:
DURATION ESTIMATE
PHASE SHORT MID LONG
Slow climb: 6mo 1y 2y
Ramp-up: 2mo 6mo 1y
Crazy: 1mo 2mo 5mo
Dollar Nuked: 1 day 1 day 1 day
Recovery 6mo 1y 2y
I wrote this in March, so taking these numbers and laying them out on the calendar, here's my predictions with March 2008 as a starting point:
SHORT-DURATION SCENARIO:
Slow climb: (already happening)
Ramp up: Sep 2008
Crazy: Nov 2008
Dollar Nuked: Dec 2008
Recovery: Dec 2009 - May 2010
MEDIUM-DURATION SCENARIO:
Slow climb: (already happening)
Ramp up: Mar 2009
Crazy: Sep 2009
Dollar Nuked: Nov 2009
Recovery: Nov 2009-Nov 2010
LONG-DURATION SCENARIO:
Slow climb: (already happening)
Ramp up: Mar 2010
Crazy: Mar 2011
Dollar Nuked: Aug 2011
Recovery: Aug 2011 - Aug 2013
See previous post for more explanation. Mileage may vary. Feedback is welcome.
Sources:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation
http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/hyper.htm
