tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3417695570812631219.post8358383362918279975..comments2010-03-29T20:30:04.306-07:00Comments on Hyperinflation Watch: Discerning the PatternZenDrakenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11885610651925912000noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3417695570812631219.post-39666755112390611072009-05-26T14:01:17.679-07:002009-05-26T14:01:17.679-07:00Anon: I don't know of any such study, but I don't...Anon: I don't know of any such study, but I don't think the size of the economy is as much of a factor as how quickly newly-created currency disperses into the system as a whole.<br /><br />In theory, if you double the amount of money in the system, everything will suddenly cost twice as much. That's an oversimplification, caveats apply, etc., but that's the general concept. <br /><br />There are certainly many other factors. A reduction in supply or increase in demand will also drive prices up. But all other such factors being held constant, if you dump a lot of currency into the system, prices must go up. The question is how much gets dumped and how fast does it disperse?<br /><br />I can't answer that question, but I think in this day and age we know that money can disperse quite rapidly.ZenDrakenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11885610651925912000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3417695570812631219.post-68653250810036730442009-05-26T13:19:24.335-07:002009-05-26T13:19:24.335-07:00Has anyone done a comparison based on the sheer si...Has anyone done a comparison based on the sheer size of the American economy as comparison to some of these other cases. I do happen to believe that we will experience inflation or perhaps hyperinflation, but my question is that with an economy the size of the U.S. economy, might not the effect be a bit slower to see. Kind of like the Titanic being so slow to turn/accelerate/decelerate. Might these phases not be of extended duration?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3417695570812631219.post-59133722629793244112009-05-11T08:13:00.000-07:002009-05-11T08:13:00.000-07:00Part of what we're seeing is people anticipating i...Part of what we're seeing is people <I>anticipating</I> inflation. China adjusting it's portfolio of Treasuries with more emphasis on short term rather than 30 year maturity. And being less interested in buying Treasuries at all (hence the uptick in T-bill rates). More interest in gold, etc.<br /><br />People are looking at US Government projected spending, see it as unsustainable (not to mention all the money creation already done), and are positioning themselves for the inflation they see as inevitable.<br /><br />This could throw off the schedule.LarryDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10955273945502612268noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3417695570812631219.post-53114146813444161592009-05-10T15:46:00.000-07:002009-05-10T15:46:00.000-07:00Well, then the key will be to determine if we are ...Well, then the key will be to determine if we are really going to experience phase 2.<br /><br />September, huh!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3417695570812631219.post-17258605672572604282009-05-10T13:25:00.000-07:002009-05-10T13:25:00.000-07:004 to 8 months sounds about right, which puts us be...4 to 8 months sounds about right, which puts us between the medium and long-duration scenarios. That would give us this medium/long schedule:<br /><br />MEDIUM/LONG-DURATION SCENARIO:<br />Slow climb: (already happening)<br />Ramp up: Sep 2009<br />Crazy: Jun 2010<br />Dollar Nuked: Sep 2010<br />Recovery: Sep 2010 - Mar 2012<br /><br />This will make for an interesting Congressional election period.ZenDrakenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11885610651925912000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3417695570812631219.post-90492685216252698452009-05-10T12:06:00.000-07:002009-05-10T12:06:00.000-07:00The uptick in T-bill rates along with the spending...The uptick in T-bill rates along with the spending spree causing no change in the predicted jobs pattern is covered at <A HREF="http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/2009/05/unstimulating.html" REL="nofollow">Unstimulating</A>. <br /><br />The beginning of the slow climb is well underway. I'd say 4 to 8 months before phase 2 kicks in. <br /><br />OTOH just think of what hyperinflation will do to the velocity of money.M. Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09508934110558197375noreply@blogger.com